CGI Gulf Insights of the week (copy 334) (723)

ByCGI Gulf Insights of the week
Tuesday, 14 October 2025
Published inOctober 2025

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October 2025

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Issue No:461

Country Risk Update - Qatar

Risk Indicator - DB3c
Risk Level - Slight
Ratings Trend - Stable

On 23 September, the OECD released its Economic Outlook Interim Report, noting that global growth had proved more resilient than expected in H1 2025, especially in emerging economies and the US. The organisation highlighted that downside risks, in particular higher tariffs and inflation pressures, will dominate the rest of 2025. OPEC+ will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October, much lower than the 411,000bpd and 555,000bpd rises seen in June and July, respectively In September, the UK, Canada and Australia issued coordinated declarations recognising Palestinian statehood, becoming the first G7 nations to do so. The move marks a major diplomatic shift and comes after Israel has expanded its military operations in Gaza, now indicating its intent to occupy the entire territory..................................................................

MARKET OVERVIEW

Investor confidence in Adnoc Drilling soars after landmark majlis event

(Source: Khaleej Times)

Adnoc Drilling is riding a wave of investor optimism following the recent Adnoc Investor Majlis, held last Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. The event, which brought together global and regional investors, analysts, and Adnoc leadership, has led to a series of target price upgrades from major financial institutions, signaling renewed confidence in the company’s growth prospects. Five leading global banks — Citi, Barclays, Bank of America, Bank of China International, and Bernstein — have revised their target share prices for Adnoc Drilling upward. Barclays raised its target from Dh6.8 to Dh7.5, while Bank of America moved from Dh6.9 to Dh7.4. Bank of China International and Bernstein made more modest increases, and Citi lifted its target from Dh6.4 to Dh6.7. The average target price across these institutions rose from Dh6.5 to Dh6.6. Market analysts say the upgrades reflect Adnoc Drilling’s solid.................

OPEC points to smaller 2026 oil supply deficit as OPEC+ pumps more

(Source: Khaleej Times)

World oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year as the wider OPEC+ group increases production, an OPEC report showed on Monday, marking a change from last month's outlook, which projected a supply shortfall in 2026. OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies opted to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than previously planned. The additional supply has raised concerns of a surplus and weighed on oil prices this year. In its monthly report, OPEC said the world economy continues to show solid growth and it maintained its forecasts for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year, and by a slightly faster rate in 2026. "The robust global economic dynamics seen in the third quarter of 2025, coupled with upward revisions to second-quarter 2025 growth in the U.S. and Japan, as well as..................

UAE non-oil business activity expands to seven-month high in September

(Source: The National)

The UAE's non-oil private-sector economy continued to improve in September, as new business intake and stronger sales led activity to reach its highest level in seven months. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 54.2, up from 53.3 the previous month. The sharp increase signals a solid and quicker improvement in the non-oil business sector and marks the second consecutive monthly expansion in the Arab world’s second-largest economy. "The UAE PMI made up some lost ground in September following a trend of moderating growth in the middle of the year,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Indeed, the latest reading of 54.2, which sits just below the survey long-run average, suggests that non-oil business performance has recovered well since its trough in July.” Central to the sharp improvement was a “strong recovery” in demand growth.................

UAE economy to outpace global average this year, says IMF

(Source: The National)

The UAE economy is projected to outperform the global average this year as it is expected to remain resilient to uncertainty in the global economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday at the conclusion of its Article IV consultation with the Emirates. The IMF projects the UAE's gross domestic product (GDP) to expand at a 4.8 per cent pace this year, driven by strong non-hydrocarbon growth and Opec production increases before expanding at a further 5 per cent rate in 2026. The fund's growth projection is slightly below the UAE Central Bank's forecast for this year – which was released last week – of 4.9 per cent. The UAE last month announced the launch of a strategy to boost its economy by Dh30 billion ($8.16 billion) a year. The strategy, called the National Policy for Economy Clusters, will see the UAE aim to boost foreign trade by Dh15 billion over the next seven years. The launch of.......................

COMMODITY & STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Commodity Update

(source: Trading Economics)

The weekly commodity update from Trading Economics

Stock Market Update

(source: Mubasher)

The weekly stock market update from Mubashar

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(Source: Dun & Bradstreet)

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